By Sonu Trivedi August 22, 2019, 10:29 AM IST Economic Times in ET Commentary | World | ET

This is a time of great crisis and concern for Vietnam when its claim of sovereignty has been challenged in the South China Sea, particularly in the block 05.1 and 06.1 where huge deployment by Chinese vessel has been witnessed over the past couple of weeks. This has been the third-biggest Chinese standoff since 2011 which witnessed cutting down of cables to 2014 incident when huge drilling platform was laid down sparkling a diplomatic crisis between the two neighbours and finally in 2019 beginning with stationing of huge geo-seismic surveyors in early July and the recent massive deployment of coastguard ships, fishing vehicles, bombers and fighters in the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of Vietnam.

In light of the aforesaid facts, it may be said that Vietnam is facing a military exigency. It should articulate this openly and much coordination and synchronisation are required at the ground level, particularly, because Vietnam would acquire ASEAN Chair in 2020 and non-permanent membership of United Nations Security Council (UNSC). The matter also requires India�s attention as the 06.1 block has commercial activities being carried out since the last 17 years by ONGC Videsh as the largest stakeholder followed by Russia based Roseneft and Petro Vietnam. This recent standoff between China and Vietnam may potentially damage the India-China goodwill generated during the post-Dokhlam crisis.

The primary objective behind the current standoff by China is to carry out joint oil and gas explorations and drilling in the areas falling under the sovereign rights of Vietnam, chiefly contested by Beijing as falling under its mythical �nine-dash line�. The idea is to create a new dispute in these undisputed areas of the South China Sea. It also wants to divert international attention away from the long escalating US-China trade war which is resulting in the slowdown and hitting its economy badly. Also, the issue of rising unrest and anti-Chinese protests in Hong Kong and Taiwan may be other factors which China may want to cover up by its recent intrusion in the South China Sea and blowing the episode out of proportion.

Amidst the growing assertiveness of China in the disputed waters of the South China Sea, Vietnam is looking to multiple partners in Asia and beyond. Over the years, Vietnam has looked out for support to the United States and entered into security engagements with Japan, Australia along with India and a number of ASEAN member States. India has been supporting freedom of navigation and overflight facilities along with the access to resources in the South China Sea following principles of international law in conformity with the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). The strongest protest seems to have been received from the United States. It has openly come against the �coercive behaviour and bullying tactics� of China which has threatened regional peace and security.

Given the ground realities, is Vietnam ready for all types of scenarios and policy options? It is high time for Vietnam that it should have its priorities clear. It is a matter of choosing between the economic security and geo-politics thereby making it strategically secured against China. Here, the option of naming China for its aggressive behaviour and its assertiveness in the second phase of standoff against Vietnam since August 13th needs to be carefully exercised. Vietnam�s act of tactfully balancing its economic interests vis-a-vis security has not yielded much result so far. On a long term basis, Vietnam has to set its house in order and China-centric voices in Hanoi have to be ruled out if it wishes to garner the support of the other powers in the region.

Vietnam is also mobilising anti-Chinese protests by its Diaspora community in different parts of the world. However, it wants to avoid any possibilities of anti-China riots back home like in 2014 and wishes to keep the window for negotiations open between Hanoi and Beijing. Other options could be like an open or a closed-door discussion at UNSC. This may be some kind of pressure building exercise, however, the possibility remains bleak as China being a permanent member would never allow for such discussions to even come up. Legal actions must also not be ruled out as it is for the first time after a Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) tribunal verdict in 2016 that China is trying to make the ruling redundant.

Managing the international media � both print and social � and wider publicity through corporate media sources is required to build up a new narrative about the ongoing crisis. Garnering the support of the ASEAN member states and other regional players by issuing a policy statement condemning the intrusion may hardly hit the image of China in the international community. Joint naval exercises within ASEAN member countries and group sailing activities involving other external powers may also be used as an option. Last but not the least, amidst a warlike simmering situation Vietnam must keep its military options open paving way for military preparedness and synchronised signaling for protecting its sovereign rights in the region.
************
Sonu Trivedi is a Fellow at Nehru Memorial Museum and Library and Honorary Director of Centre for Vietnam Studies, New Delhi.